By Abiola Olatunde Aloba
Saturday, August 15, 2026. That is the day Osun finally gets to answer the question that has occupied the political class for months:
Will Senator Ademola Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke return to Government House for another 4 years, or will Bola Oyebamiji pull off the upset of the decade?
The answer, ultimately, should come from the good people of Osun.
And that is precisely why Saturday, August 15 should also be a major litmus test for INEC and its not-too-new helmsman.
Can this INEC conduct an election that is genuinely credible? Can the votes be cast freely, counted honestly & announced transparently?
And, perhaps most importantly, will whoever actually wins be allowed to win? Because make no mistake about it: the combatants are ready.
Both sides have been preparing, mobilising, calculating &, as Nigerian politicians are wont to do, deploying their extensive bags of political tricks. And neither appears remotely interested in conceding an inch. At the centre of it all are 2 men.
On one side is the incumbent Governor, His Excellency, Senator Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke, the colourful, ‘easy-going’ & once famously dancing Governor who stunned a great many people, including yours truly, by defeating a sitting governor in 2022.
Governor Adeleke is the younger brother of billionaire businessman Dr. Deji Adeleke & also the late former Governor of Osun State, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, popularly known as Serubawon. He is also the flamboyant uncle of Nigerian music superstar Davido.
On the other side is the APC flag bearer, Bola Oyebamiji.
Oyebamiji is hardly a political novice. He served as commissioner under both Governors Rauf Aregbesola & Gboyega Oyetola. He was also MD/CEO of Omoluabi Holdings Limited, formerly OSICOL, & later served as SA to Oyetola before becoming MD/CEO of the National Inland Waterways Authority.
So, this is no ordinary contest.
But there is another personality whose shadow looms large over the APC campaign. Gboyega Oyetola.
And I make bold to say that while Bola Oyebamiji may be the man whose name appears on the ballot paper, Oyetola remains one of the most important political players behind the campaign. And understandably so.
It was Adeleke who defeated Oyetola in 2022 & took the Osun governorship away from him.
For Oyetola, therefore, this is not merely another election. It must be tempting to see it as unfinished business.
What could be politically sweeter than helping to do to Adeleke in 2026 exactly what Adeleke did to him in 2022? That would be quite some political revenge.
And perhaps one of Oyetola’s most satisfying political achievements. But this time, he isn’t the candidate. Bola Oyebamiji is. And that distinction matters.
The APC clearly believes that Adeleke’s victory 4 years ago was, to a large extent, a product of political miscalculation on their part. They believe they underestimated him & overestimated themselves.
They believe they became overconfident.
They believe the circumstances of that election gave Adeleke the opening he needed. And they are determined not to make that mistake twice.
The APC wants to prove that Adeleke’s 2022 victory was a fluke. Adeleke, naturally, wants to prove precisely the opposite.
He wants to demonstrate that his victory was no accident, that he is bigger than the political platform on which he contests, & that the strength of the Adeleke name, family structure & his own personal appeal are enough to carry him across the line. That is the real battle.
HOW WE GOT HERE
The road to Adeleke’s 2nd-term bid has been anything but smooth.
When the PDP, the platform on which he won the governorship, became increasingly troubled, the governor was confronted with a very difficult political choice. At one point, the APC appeared to be the obvious destination.
After all, what better platform for an incumbent Governor seeking re-election than one of the country’s biggest political parties? But the APC did not take him. The party apparently believed it was strong enough without him.
And so Adeleke moved to Accord.
At the time, some people looked at that move & wondered whether the Governor had effectively pushed himself to the political precipice.
How could a sitting Governor realistically secure another term under a relatively obscure political party? Then came the legal trouble surrounding Accord.
There were fears that the party could be proscribed following a court pronouncement, potentially leaving Adeleke without a viable platform on which to seek re-election. But the higher court eventually vacated the lower court’s position.
Adeleke survived.
Then came the EFCC scare.
That, too, became another obstacle on the road to his 2nd term, until the intervention of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu helped lift the immediate political cloud around the governor.
One obstacle after another. Yet Adeleke kept moving. And something rather interesting happened along the way.
Accord acquired weight.
The little party that some may have thought would be incapable of carrying a sitting Governor to another term suddenly had something most political parties would kill for: incumbency.
And incumbency is a formidable political weapon.
Adeleke now carries the full paraphernalia of the office of Governor into what was once considered a flyweight political party.
That makes this election very different from the one many imagined when he 1st moved to Accord.
THE ADELEKE ADVANTAGE
Adeleke has several things going for him.
1st, he is the incumbent.
2nd, he has the enormous Adeleke family structure behind him.
His elder brother, Dr. Deji Adeleke, remains a powerful figure. Connection & money wise.
His nephew, Davido, brings enormous popularity & influence to the family name.
And then there is Adeleke himself.
Whatever anyone may say about his administration, there is little doubt that he possesses a personal connection with many of the people of Osun.
He is not difficult to identify with. He is colourful. He is accessible. He has a personality. And, yes, he dances.
Although, interestingly, the dancing Governor seems to have reduced the dancing considerably since becoming Governor.
Perhaps Government House has finally taught him that there is a time to dance & a time to govern. But beyond the personality is the biggest political advantage of all: He is already there.
He is the man occupying the office Oyebamiji wants. And that counts.
BUT OYEBAMIJI IS NO PUSHOVER
The APC’s answer is equally straightforward. They say Adeleke has had 4 years. What has he done with them? That is the question they want Osun voters to ask themselves.
The APC’s argument is that Adeleke’s 1st term has been disappointing & that the state deserves something better.
Oyebamiji’s job, therefore, is to make this election a referendum on Adeleke’s performance. If he succeeds, Adeleke could be in trouble.
If Adeleke succeeds in making the election a referendum on the Adeleke versus Oyetola political rivalry, Oyebamiji could have a much harder battle on his hands.
And therein lies one of the most fascinating dynamics of this election. The APC wants the people to ask: “What has Adeleke done?”
Adeleke wants them to remember: “We defeated Oyetola 4 years ago.” Both arguments have political value.
The question is which one will resonate more deeply with the electorate.
NO CLEAR WINNER YET
As things stand, I don’t see an election with a clear favourite yet.
I see 2 serious political machines preparing for battle. Adeleke has incumbency, family influence, personal popularity & the machinery of government.
Oyebamiji has the APC structure, experienced political hands & the backing of some formidable figures in Osun politics.
And behind him stands Oyetola- the current Minister of Marine & Blue Economy, who surely understands better than most what it takes to win or lose, this particular election.
This is why I am not buying into any premature declaration of victory by either camp. The election has not been won because somebody held a mammoth rally. It has not been won because somebody attracted a former governor. It has not been won because somebody has more money. It has not been won because somebody’s social media army is noisier.
It will be won when the people vote & those votes are properly counted.
And that is why August 15 matters.
WILL THE BALLOT REALLY COUNT?
This, for me, is the biggest question. Not who has the loudest campaign. Not who has the biggest convoy. Not who has the most powerful godfather.
Not who has the most expensive political machinery.
Will the ballot count?
And after the ballot counts, will the result be respected?
Will the loser concede? Will the winner be allowed to govern? Will the FG provide a level playing field?
These are questions that deserve honest answers.
And I sincerely hope we do not have to witness violence.
Both camps are too invested in this election. Both want victory. Both believe they have a legitimate claim to Government House.
And both have enough political machinery to make trouble if their supporters are allowed to get carried away.
But Osun people must not become casualties of somebody else’s political ambition. No election is worth one human life.
ADELEKE OR OYEBAMIJI?
So, here is my own reading of the political chessboard.
If I must choose today, August 10, I would give Adeleke a narrow advantage.
Not a landslide. Not a walkover. Not anything remotely resembling certainty.
A narrow advantage.
Perhaps 55–45. Why? Because incumbency matters. Because the Adeleke name matters.
Because Adeleke has built a political structure around himself.
Because he has already demonstrated once that he can win when the odds appear stacked against him.
And because the man who was once dismissed as merely the dancing candidate is no longer an outsider. He is the incumbent Governor.
But, & this is a very big but, Oyebamiji can still win. If the APC turns dissatisfaction with Adeleke into actual votes, the calculation changes.
If Oyebamiji succeeds in convincing enough voters that this election should be about performance rather than personality, the calculation changes.
If the APC’s political machinery performs as expected, the calculation changes.
And if Adeleke’s support base becomes complacent, the calculation changes dramatically.
That is why I wouldn’t put my life on the 55-45.
This is Osun (my father’s state). And Osun politics has already taught us never to underestimate the man nobody expects to win. 4 years ago, that man was Ademola Adeleke.
This time, could it be Bola Oyebamiji?
That is the beauty, & sometimes the madness, of democracy. The man expected to lose can win. The man expected to win can lose.
And the man everybody thought was finished can suddenly become the hero of the story.
So, come Saturday, August 15, will Adeleke slam-dunk Oyebamiji? Or will Oyebamiji do the unthinkable & send the dancing Governor back to private life?
Will 2022 repeat itself? Or will 2026 reverse it? Will Adeleke prove that his 1st victory was no fluke?
Or will Oyebamiji prove that the 1st victory was simply a political accident that the APC has now corrected?
Will the ballot speak? Will INEC listen? And will everybody respect the verdict?
For me, that is the real story.
Forget the rather daft talk about anybody reporting the Osun election to Donald Trump. Osun does not belong to Trump. It does not belong to Tinubu. It does not belong to Oyetola. It does not belong to Adeleke.
And it certainly does not belong to Oyebamiji.
Osun belongs to the people of Osun.
So let the people speak. Let INEC count. Let the numbers determine the winner.
And when the final result is announced, let the winner win & let the loser accept the verdict.
Because, at the end of all the noise, all the rallies, all the money, all the permutations, all the godfatherism & all the political chess-playing, there is only one question left:
ADELEKE OR OYEBAMIJI?
On Saturday, August 15, Osun will answer.
