The 2027 Ogun governorship battle may have just taken a dramatic turn
If things continue to unfold the way they are now, the APC may just have inadvertently shot itself in the foot in Ogun State, & Hon. Ladi Adebutu may suddenly find himself staring at the Government House in Abeokuta with considerably less distance between him & the coveted seat.
It is still far too early though to declare victory. Elections, particulaarly Nigerian elections, have a notorious habit of refusing to obey predictions. But something has undeniably changed.
The once seemingly comatose Ogun PDP has suddenly found a new lease of life, while the ruling APC’s chosen candidate, distinguished Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola aka Yayi, is being dragged into an increasingly ferocious battle over his ancestry & indigeneship.
And therein lies the political intrigue.
Until this controversy exploded onto the political landscape, it appeared that Yayi was already on a fairly smooth road to the APC ticket &, potentially, the governorship.
His political profile was formidable. His interventions across Ogun State have been conspicuous. Roads, infrastructure, philanthropy & various forms of constituency & community assistance have helped build an image of a politician who has been putting his money & influence where his ambition is.
The thinking in many quarters was simple: if Yayi could do this much as a Senator & private citizen, imagine what he could accomplish with the full machinery of Government House behind him. Then came the ancestry bombshell.
THE QUESTION THAT REFUSES TO GO AWAY
The PDP & some of Yayi’s political opponents have raised allegations questioning whether the Senator is genuinely an indigene of Ogun State.
Among the claims being circulated is that Yayi is actually of Ekiti origin, with further allegations that he has, at different times, identified himself as being from Lagos, Ekiti & Ogun State.
There have also been allegations that some of these supposed inconsistencies appear in documents submitted to INEC.
But let us be absolutely clear: these remain allegations.
Numbers tell us something important: Adebutu already has a substantial electoral foundation in Ogun State. He is therefore not starting from zero.
He is starting from 262,383 votes. The question is whether he can build upon them.
YAYI’S MOMENT OF TRUTH
For Yayi, the situation is equally clear. His immediate challenge is no longer simply to campaign for Governor. It is to settle the question of who he is & where he comes from in the eyes of the electorate.
That is why the ancestry controversy is potentially much more dangerous than an ordinary political attack.
If conclusively resolved in his favour, it could eventually become yesterday’s news.
But if it remains hanging in the air, repeated at rallies, amplified across social media, discussed in communities & recycled throughout the campaign, it could become a permanent question mark over his candidacy. Ogun state people being very proud wouldn’t want a known outsider to rule them.
And politics, as we know, is often as much about perception as it is about fact.
SO, IS LADI ADEBUTU FINALLY ON HIS WAY?
Perhaps. But not yet. What can be said with considerably more certainty is that Ladi Adebutu has been handed a political opening.
The PDP, once seemingly asleep at the wheel, has suddenly found something to shout about.
Yayi, who appeared to have been gathering momentum almost effortlessly, is now being forced to spend valuable political oxygen answering questions about his ancestry.
And Adebutu, the man who came painfully close in 2023, is watching. Waiting. Organising.
And daring his opponent to settle the matter once & for all. The irony is delicious.
The man who appeared to be the biggest obstacle between Adebutu & Government House may now be fighting to establish the very foundation upon which his own governorship ambition rests.
But elections are not won by headlines. They are won by votes.
And between now & 2027, there will be plenty of time for alliances to shift, loyalties to change, new controversies to emerge & old political wounds to reopen. For now, however, one thing is unmistakable: The Ogun governorship race is no longer looking like Yayi’s coronation. It is looking like a battle BUT HERE IS THE BIG QUESTION
Does all of this automatically make Ladi Adebutu Governor of Ogun State? Absolutely not.
And anyone declaring the election won in September 2026 is probably getting carried away by the theatre of the moment.
An ancestry controversy, however politically explosive, does not itself translate into votes. Adebutu still has to win the voters.
He has to convince Ogun people that he is not merely the beneficiary of Yayi’s difficulties, but a candidate deserving of their mandate. He has to sell a vision.
He has to maintain the coalition that nearly carried him across the line in 2023.
And, perhaps most importantly, he has to prevent the PDP’s old internal weaknesses from once again becoming its greatest enemy.
Because Ogun politics is not a nursery rhyme. It is sophisticated, deeply networked, financially intense & often unpredictable.
MONEY. STRUCTURE. PRESIDENCY.
Then there is the elephant in the room. Money & structure may currently be difficult to separate between the 2 major camps.
Adebutu has enormous financial backing & a political family name that carries considerable weight.
Yayi has the machinery of the ruling APC behind him, a significant personal political network & the advantage of belonging to the party controlling the Federal Government.
And then there is Abuja. The eventual posture of the Presidency & the national APC structure could become a major variable in the Ogun equation.
Nigerian politics has never been purely local. What happens in Abeokuta is often influenced by what is happening in Abuja.
So whoever eventually enjoys the strongest national political alignment will enter the final stretch with a potentially significant structural advantage.
THE 2023 GHOST
But perhaps the most fascinating character in this unfolding drama is not Yayi. It is the ghost of the 2023 election.
Because Adebutu has already demonstrated that he can get extremely close. He was not blown away. He was not politically annihilated. He was 13,915 votes away.
And some supporters have continued to insist that the election was closer than the official result suggested.
Whether one accepts that interpretation or not, the official With the considerable financial & political backing of his father, Sir Kensington Adebutu, & the PDP Ogun state machinery gradually appearing to regain its footing, the man who came within a whisker of occupying Government House Okemosan in 2023 is back in the arena.
This time, he may have been handed an issue he did not have to manufacture himself.
HAS THE APC GIVEN ADEBUTU A GIFT?
This is the question increasingly being whispered in political circles. Did the APC, by choosing Yayi, inadvertently give the PDP a vulnerability it can exploit?
Before the ancestry controversy, the argument in favour of Yayi was relatively straightforward. He was experienced. He had a substantial political network.
He had served at virtually every important legislative level, from the Lagos State House of Assembly, where he served for 2 terms from 2003 to 2011, to the House of Representatives, where he represented Alimosho, & subsequently to the Senate, where he represented Lagos West for 2 terms before moving to Ogun West.
He eventually won the Ogun West senatorial seat. Now he wants the ultimate prize: the governorship of Ogun State.
On paper, that is a remarkable political journey. But politics has a wicked sense of irony.
The very movement from Lagos to Ogun that once looked like an expansion of his political horizon has now become part of the ammunition being deployed against him.
AND THEN THERE IS ABAYOMI HUNYE
What makes this even more uncomfortable for the APC is that the opposition is not the only quarter questioning Yayi’s ancestry. Abayomi Hunye, himself an APC figure who contested the party’s governorship primary against Yayi, has also been relentless in challenging the Senator.
Hunye has insisted that he is prepared to defend his claims & has welcomed the threat of legal action. That means the controversy is no longer simply an APC-versus-PDP affair.
It has become a battle within & around the ruling party itself. And that is potentially more troublesome.
Because an accusation coming from the opposition can easily be dismissed by supporters as political warfare.
An accusation coming from within one’s own political family is considerably harder to wave away.
They have not been independently established as facts.
Yayi has vehemently rejected the claims & insists vociferously that he is a bona fide son of Ogun State, specifically from Odogbolu, where he says his parents hail from. Indeed, the Senator has not exactly run from the controversy.
He has challenged those making the allegations to produce their evidence & has reportedly threatened legal action if they do not withdraw their claims. And that is where the matter gets particularly interesting.
Those challenging him, including former political opponent Abayomi Hunye, appear more than willing to call his bluff. Their position, in essence, is: Sue us.
Because, they say, if the matter gets into court, they will have the opportunity to place their alleged evidence before the public. That is a political poker game with extremely high stakes.
FROM YEWA TO YAYI, AND NOW A FIGHT FOR HIS ROOTS
There is an added layer of intrigue. For quite some time, many political observers had understood Yayi to be associated with the Yewa axis of Ogun State, an area from which considerable political support was expected to accrue to his governorship ambition.
His emergence as the APC candidate therefore appeared to fit neatly into a broader political calculation. He had the ruling party. He had the incumbent Governor’s backing.
He appeared to have significant national political connections.
He had money, structure, visibility & a record of interventions across the state. And, perhaps most importantly, he appeared to have momentum.
Then the PDP woke up.
ADEBUTU: THE MAN WHO REFUSES TO DISAPPEAR
Ladi Adebutu is hardly a political newcomer. At 64, the businessman-politician has already been through the furnace. He is also the 1st child & son of the moneybag magnate Sir Kensington Adebukunola Adebutu.
In the 2023 Ogun governorship election, he came remarkably close to defeating the incumbent, Prince Dapo Abiodun. The official figures put Abiodun at 276,298 votes against Adebutu’s 262,383, a difference of just 13,915 votes. That was not a political wipeout. That was a fight.
And it is precisely why Adebutu’s current resurgence cannot simply be dismissed as opposition noise.
And Ladi Adebutu, having once come within a whisker of the throne, may have just been handed another chance to reach for it.
But to ask a question, can an Iperu indigene rule Ogun state again after 8 years of an Iperu indigene?
By Abiola Olatunde Aloba
