This is shaping up to be one of the quietest, but most consequential, succession battles in the history of the Lagos House of Assembly.
Obasa’s era is ending- fact, but not in disgrace, but in transition. Once a man has been “touched” & survived, the psychology changes. The LAHA has become too small for him, & 2027 clearly points upward.
That inevitability is what has opened the gate for recalibration, alignments, & silent consultations.
Now to the real contest.
THE RACE, STRIPPED OF SENTIMENT
This is not a popularity contest. It is not an academic contest. It is not even a longevity contest alone.
It is a power-balancing decision that will be taken outside the chamber & ratified inside it.
RT. HON. MOJISOLA MERANDA.
The Natural Successor:
Her strengths
Deputy Speaker (2023– )
Former Speaker (albeit briefly)
Apapa I (strategically important)
Strong royal-political pedigree (Oniru dynasty)
Proven party loyalty (stepped down without drama)
Well-liked across caucuses.
Symbolically powerful: 1st woman Speaker proper.
Meranda’s biggest asset is precedence.
Once you’ve sat on that chair, even for weeks, you are no longer “aspirational”; you are tested.
Her brief speakership was not chaotic. The House did not implode. The party structure survived.
That matters.
Her risk
Her royal lineage can cut both ways. Lagos politics is comfortable with influence, but allergic to perceived over-concentration.
Some power blocs may quietly resist the optics of dynasty + speakership.
Gender, though publicly dismissed, still whispers in back rooms.
HON. GBOLAHAN O. YISHAWU
The Establishment’s Safe Hands
His strengths
4th term lawmaker (since 2011)
Calm, technocratic, non-confrontational
Eti-Osa II (another power-heavy axis).
Seen as predictable, steady, controllable
No political baggage
No public ambition theatrics.
Yishawu’s strongest selling point is this sentence:
“He wouldn’t disrupt the apple cart.”
In succession politics, that sentence alone has crowned Speakers before.
His risk
No prior principal office (never Speaker/Deputy).
Less emotional pull among members among members
More respected than loved.
If the House is looking for authority, not just coordination, he may appear too mild.
THE REAL DECIDING FACTORS (UNSPOKEN)
What does the party want post-Obasa?
Stability? then Yishawu
Symbolic reset & continuity? then Meranda.
How many old warhorses are exiting in 2027?
If many senior members leave as anticipated, experience at the top becomes critical, favouring Meranda.
What is the Governor’s preference?
A Speaker with independent stature? Risky
A Speaker who listens first? Yishawu
Gender politics (soft factor)
Lagos loves progressive optics, when control is assured.
MY CLEAR READING
If all things are truly equal:
Meranda is the frontrunner.
Because:
She has already worn the crown.
She has institutional legitimacy.
She has broader emotional capital within the House.
She represents continuity without Obasa’s overbearing dominance.
Yishawu is the fallback consensus
If:
Power blocs fear over-concentration.
The party wants a quieter House
Internal caucus negotiations stall.
FINAL WORD
This race will not be won on just the floor. It will be won in Ikoyi living rooms, Marina offices, & discreet dinner tables.
Meranda has momentum. Yishawu has comfort value.
The question is simple:
Does Lagos want a Speaker who commands the room
or one who keeps the room calm?
For now, the cap tilts slightly toward Meranda, but Lagos politics has a habit of rewarding the man (or woman) who makes the least noise while the loudest arguments are being made.
As always:
Watch the alignments, not the announcements.
One thing to absolutely put into consideration also is, which of the senatorial constituency would the next Governor emerge from?
For you to better understand how things would truly shape out, read the budget well, & you may then understand clearly that the retirement plans of several lawmakers may have been included stylishly already!
