One persistent irritation in politics is the dangerous assumption that only one side is intelligent. That one camp alone understands strategy, numbers, sentiment, & timing, while the opponent is written off as clueless, unserious, or politically finished.
History has repeatedly punished that arrogance.
As Osun State inches toward the August 2026 governorship election, the air is already thick with bravado, certainty, & premature victory songs. Yet, when the final votes are counted, only one reality will remain: either the incumbent survives, or power changes hands. No amount of online confidence or partisan chest-thumping alters that truth.
This contest is shaping up to be a classic 3-way political war, raw, emotional, strategic, & deeply personal. And the gladiators are no lightweights.
Let’s examine them, clinically, honestly, & without sentiment.
THE MAN TO BEAT: GOVERNOR ADEMOLA NURUDEEN JACKSON ADELEKE (ACCORD)
Let us start with the obvious.
Governor Adeleke commands respect, whether one likes his style or not. He is in power today because his opponents made the fatal error of underestimating him. I admit freely: I was among those who dismissed his chances. I saw spectacle where I should have seen structure. I mistook relatability for unseriousness.
The election cured that illusion.
Defeating a sitting governor seeking re-election, especially one deeply connected to the Asiwaju political family, is no small feat in Nigerian politics. It is rare. It is brutal. And it is usually impossible without an extraordinary coalition.
Adeleke had that coalition.
He enjoyed the strategic resolve & financial backing of his elder brother, who made it clear that legality, not sentiment, would carry the day. Add to that the enormous cultural pull of his nephew, Davido, & something powerful happened: the grassroots adopted him emotionally.
That emotional bond remains his greatest asset.
Whether his 1st term has been outstanding or merely passable is almost secondary. Elections are not audits; they are referendums on connection. And today, Adeleke still enjoys an organic affection many politicians can only buy.
The single complication is his platform, the Accord Party. On paper, it looks weak. In practice, Adeleke has already proven once that he is the electoral value, not the logo.
The bigger question is this: has that coalition energy been sustained, or was it a one-time political storm?
THE STRUCTURED CHALLENGER: BOLA OYEBAMIJI (APC)
If the PDP’s collapse should have brought clarity to the APC, it has instead exposed its internal contradictions.
Adeleke’s refusal to join the APC was a political statement of rare boldness. It said plainly: I won with people, not party.
Enter Bola Oyebamiji, the APC’s flagbearer.
His path to candidacy was not smooth. The disqualification of Senator Iyiola Omisore, a heavyweight in his own right, left bruises that APC has yet to fully heal from. Unity remains a work in progress.
Oyebamiji is no novice. Former commissioner under both Aregbesola & Oyetola. Former Special Adviser. MD of NIWA. He is deeply rooted in APC’s institutional machinery & clearly enjoys the confidence of Gboyega Oyetola, his political principal, & by extension, proximity to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
He calls himself a grassroots politician. He projects confidence. He even boasts of a landslide victory.
But Osun elections are not won by résumés alone.
This is not Oyebamiji’s 1st ambition for the governorship. The lingering question, quiet but stubborn, is this: does he inspire beyond structure? Or is he relying too heavily on party arithmetic in a state that has proven capable of emotional rebellion?
THE DISRUPTOR from Ejigbo: RT. HON. NAJEEM FOLASAYO SALAAM (ADC)
Then comes the wildcard, the candidacy many underestimate at their peril.
Dr. Najeem Salaam is not merely running under the ADC. He is the political expression of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola’s unresolved war.
Aregbesola may not be on the ballot, but make no mistake, this election is personal for him. He is estranged. He is angry. He feels betrayed by the APC, challenged by Adeleke, & completely severed from Asiwaju, his former mentor & best friend.
This election is his reply.
Salaam is no political pawn. A former Speaker of the Osun House of Assembly, he is seasoned, deeply rooted, & well-versed in the political temperament of the state. His relationship with Aregbesola is not transactional; it is ideological.
Ogbeni believes he understands APC’s internal anatomy better than anyone alive, & believes he has had enough time to design counter-strategies. Whether that confidence is justified is another matter.
And yes, there is the curious coincidence that Election Day falls on Salaam’s birthday. Symbolism rarely wins elections, but in Nigerian politics, symbols often ignite momentum.
THE FINAL VERDICT (FOR NOW)
Beyond Accord, APC, & ADC which is the new face of PDP, every other party is a footnote.
This election is not a joke. It is not settled. It is not predictable.
It is a collision of:
Incumbency vs. Structure
Emotion vs. Machinery
Revenge vs. Retention
Coalition politics vs. party loyalty
So, can Bola Oyebamiji defeat Ademola Adeleke?
Hmmmmmm…Yes. He could. As nothing is set in stone.
But whether he will depends on forces far deeper than confidence, slogans, or assumptions of superiority.
Osun has surprised before.
And it may do so again.
Until then,
let the games begin.
